{"id":1773,"date":"2020-01-06T10:00:53","date_gmt":"2020-01-06T17:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.voile.com\/blog\/?p=1773"},"modified":"2020-04-17T10:29:12","modified_gmt":"2020-04-17T16:29:12","slug":"avalanche-forecasting-101","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.voile.com\/blog\/avalanche-forecasting-101\/","title":{"rendered":"Avalanche Forecasting 101"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Do you want to go on a hut trip to the remote backcountry of British Columbia with your buddies? How about an expedition to ski from the summit of Denali? If so, you\u2019ll need to be your own avalanche forecaster. And if that sounds like work, it\u2019s because it is. But don’t let this scare you. With practice and persistence you can use avalanche forecasting techniques to make smart calls in the backcountry, even in foreign terrain<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avalanche Forecasting<\/strong> is all about making educated opinions about what the likely avalanche hazards<\/strong> will be. This involves looking into the past to interpret a complex set of details (or lack thereof) and formulating an opinion on how future weather will affect the avalanche hazard. It\u2019s a bit like a game of high stakes poker, and it’s an intimidating prospect to recreational backcountry travelers and industry professionals alike. Luckily, the dirty secret of avalanche forecasting<\/strong> (not decision-making in the field<\/em>) is that you don\u2019t have to be right… but you can\u2019t be wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You don\u2019t have to be right but you can’t be wrong?!<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Yup. Let us remember that high stakes game of poker and think about our decision making in bets. We can lose a few bets here and there and not lose the game, but if we go all-in we’d better be right… because the stakes are high<\/strong>. Our small bets are our snow-pit tests and test slopes. It’s ok to be wrong here. We actually learn from getting it wrong. What matters is how we look at that mistake and incorporate new information to form an updated opinion (or in this case a better avalanche forecast.) Like most things, this is better practiced in your home mountains before trying to forecast on your first big expedition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to start avalanche forecasting we need to learn a few basic principles regarding snow metamorphosis (how the structure of snow changes within a short time), snow mechanics (the forces and displacements of snow), and how changes in weather can affect these aspects. Recreational avalanche 1 and 2 classes will provide the best foundation for learning these skills. Find local avalanche education courses here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Getting Started<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

First things first – get a notebook and develop a routine. A write-in-the-rain notebook is the norm, but some folks are also using phones successfully. Whatever you choose, make sure you can use it in the worst of weather. Your notebook will serve as a reference tool for you both in the field and at home. Start a routine of recording this information before you leave home:<\/p>\n\n\n\n